Are broadcast meteorologists operating out of fear or courage?
I recently finished Bob Iger’s book, The Ride of a Lifetime, which chronicles his career with the ABC television network and eventually the Walt Disney Company. It’s an excellent study on business, leadership, and the importance of innovation.
Iger recognized early on the media landscape was changing. He wrote that in 2001, “every traditional media company, while trying to figure out its place in this changing world, was operating out of fear rather than courage, stubbornly trying to build a bulwark to protect old models that couldn’t possibly survive the sea change that was under way.”
I heard Iger talk about this years ago when he visited KTRK, the ABC-owned television station in Houston. He pointed out then, as he did in the book, “If you don’t innovate, you die.” This statement was more than a mantra. It was how Iger operated as leader of the world’s largest entertainment company.
Lately, I’ve been thinking about innovation and the future of broadcast meteorology. So much has changed in the few years since I left the on-side side of the business and started coaching. In addition to websites and apps, many local television stations now have a 24-hour streaming news channel. NEXGEN TV equipment is being installed across the country, creating more opportunities to produce engaging content.
On the weather side, computer models can now predict the movement and intensity of smoke and dust, soil moisture and temperature, and future high-resolution radar in 15-minute increments. As I previously wrote, some of this data is used to make weather apps more accurate and useful.
Pablo Pereira, a meteorologist at KTTV FOX 11 in Los Angeles, responded to my original article on LinkedIn, saying, “When shi* hits the fan as in breaking weather, we tell you where that strong storm cell is going to be next, how long it will last and when and where to take cover. Can an app do that?”
Not yet. But that capability is coming. Soon.
Storm tracking in the palm of your hand
The National Severe Storms Laboratory is working on a new Warn-on-Forecast system that uses radar, satellite, and high-resolution computer models to issue storm warnings with more lead time. According to the NSSL website, “WoFS is designed to make probabilistic predictions of individual thunderstorms out to six hours in advance.”
Patrick Burke, the program lead for the Warn-on-Forecast Program, says, “The software has advanced from an idea to the experimental and testing phase.” The team will be drafting a transition plan this year. “We are planning for WoFS to be fully operational and running at the National Weather Service between 2026-2029,” he told me.
Once the system becomes operational, it probably won’t be long before it’s available on mobile devices and integrated into weather apps. What then? What happens when severe weather storm tracking, the one thing broadcast meteorologists do really well, is available to every consumer with a tap on their smartphone? This is the future. And it’s coming, fast.
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler point out in their book, The Future is Faster Than You Think, that the convergence of different technologies enables accelerated innovation. They write, “Paradigm-shifting, game-changing, nothing-is-ever-the-same-again breakthroughs will not be an occasional affair. They’ll be happening all the time.”
Combine the new storm warning lead time with artificial intelligence and augmented reality, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe in less than ten years, detailed storm warnings highlighting which storms could produce a tornado, how long it will last, and where to take cover will be delivered by a realistic-looking computer-drawn avatar on TVs, computer screens, smartphones, watches, and eyeglasses.
We need an innovation revolution
I have to wonder, are broadcast meteorologists embracing or ignoring emerging technologies? Are we being innovative and facing our present and future challenges with courage, as Iger suggests?
Using the newer HRRR forecast model vs. the GFS isn’t innovative. Neither is breaking down the SPC convective outlook into individual storm threats or tracking tornadoes using spectrum width and correlation coefficient. Lifestyle and hour-by-hour forecasts were innovative twenty years ago. Augmented reality weather presentations are the norm, not the exception. You’re definitely not innovative if you still show the almanac in your daily weathercasts.
Broadcast meteorologists seem to understand there’s been a paradigm shift in how consumers access weather information. We’ve responded by cross-publishing our forecasts and weather graphics on the station-branded website, app, and social media. But that’s a reactionary response, not revolutionary.
To me, innovative weather coverage means producing essential weather content every day that keeps our communities safe and enables them to live happy, healthy lives. In addition to tracking severe weather, we should also highlight disruptive and inconvenient weather events that have a smaller yet significant impact on those affected. Then we must package that information and present it in ways that maximize the benefits of each broadcast and digital platform. Of course, this requires us to audit the daily workload to identify methods of accomplishing all of this without adding extra stress. That’s the essence behind the Meteorology Marketing mindset.
If broadcast meteorologists want to be an essential source of the latest weather information, if we want consumers to think of us first when it comes to daily and severe weather, if we want to be the go-to weather expert in our communities, we need to start thinking differently and deliberately about the content we produce, publish, and post every day.
And we need to start doing that now, not five or ten years now when we’ve already lost the last remaining viewer.
Tim Heller is an AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, Talent Coach, and Weather Content Consultant. He helps local TV stations and broadcast meteorologists communicate more effectively on-air, online, and on social media.